Turkish Neurosurgery 2023 , Vol 33 , Num 4
A Nomogram for Prediction of Patients with Anaplastic Ependymoma in the Brain and Spinal Cord Survival
Hui LIU1,Peng SUN1
1Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Department of Neurosurgery, Qingdao, China DOI : 10.5137/1019-5149.JTN.41103-22.1 AIM: To establish a model of intracranial and spinal cord anaplastic ependymomas, and to find out their independent prognostic factors.

MATERIAL and METHODS: Data from 305 patients with anaplastic ependymoma in the brain and spinal cord from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 1988 and 2015 were retrospectively extracted and analyzed using the R software. Statistical significance indicators were identified using the Cox regression analysis. The nomogram visualized the model and was corrected using the concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), and calibration curve.

RESULTS: Analysis revealed that age and treatment were found to be of statistical significance in this study. On the basis of the results of the present study, the model?s C-index was 0.777 and the AUC value of the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve at 2, 3, and 5 years were 0.758, 0.775, and 0.788, respectively, demonstrating a decent discriminatory ability. Finally, a nomogram was constructed and validated using a validation curve.

CONCLUSION: In summary, the present study revealed the two risk factors (including age and treatment) as independent prognostic factors for patients with anaplastic ependymoma in the spinal cord and brain. The suggested model can accurately assess the disease-specific survival rate of these patients and can provide recommendations for optimal treatment options. Keywords : Anaplastic ependymoma, Postoperative, Nomogram, Prognostic factors, Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC)

Corresponding author : Peng SUN, sunpeng@qdu.edu.cn